The Rise of a New Indian Elite

Mature, Notes, Colonization, Miniso, and Costco

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Salutations, Olio aficionados! šŸ‘‹

Happy Hump Day and welcome to the 97th edition of Weekly Olio - your trusted source for giggles, wisdom, and a dash of intrigue, courtesy of our tantalizing thought piece (yes, buckle up for Publisher's Parmesan). šŸ§€

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The Quote󠀢 šŸ’­

ā€œWe mature with the damage, not with the years.ā€

ā€• Mateus William

The Tweet šŸ¦

The process of writing physical notes helps crystalize memory in a way that typing doesnā€™t. And as much as Iā€™m a tech person, electronic systems can be ā€œa coat with 1000 pocketsā€ - if that phrase rings true, a pocket spiral notebook might be for you!

The Infographic šŸ’¹

Half of Europe has been colonized by Europe too. Some of Europe has never been colonizers. Go figure!

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The Short Read šŸ“

Jianggan Li is the founder and CEO of Momentum Works, a Singapore-headquartered venture outfit with a global emerging market focus

Many were surprised by Minisoā€™s decision to invest in Yonghui, as Miniso usually runs small lifestyle stores. Retail experts and the market were confused, causing Minisoā€™s share price to drop by over 16%. Ye Guofu, Minisoā€™s founder, posted a mysterious message on social media: ā€œIt is right that everyone struggles to understand this move; if everyone would understand, that means I have made a mistake.ā€ What are Ye and Miniso planning? Read moreā€¦

The Long Read šŸ“œ

Ben Ryder Howe is a frequent contributor to New York Magazine, the New York Times, and other publications. He is the author of My Korean Deli: Risking It All for a Convenience Store.

Ben Ryder Howe writes a half-praising, half-concerned piece on Costco. Plenty of fun details (they account for half of global cashew sales, supplied by more than a million farmers). In rankings of which companies people trust, Costco comes out on top. They've managed to build a model that's aligned with the revealed preferences of shoppersā€”i.e. big spending on bulk itemsā€”but that's less aligned with what shoppers want to want. Read moreā€¦

This edition of Publisherā€™s Parmesan is brought to you by Roku.

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Publisherā€™s Parmesan šŸ§€

The Rise of a New Indian Elite

Saurabh Mukherjea, founder and CIO of Marcellus Investment Managers, dives deep into India's evolving economic landscape in this exclusive discussion. Mukherjea explains how the world's fifth-largest economy is shaping a new elite class, driven by explosive growth in digital infrastructure, SME lending, and mobile commerce. He also delves into the success stories behind India's booming stock market, the surprising rise of women and local graduates leading the charge.

India's economic landscape has been undergoing a remarkable transformation, one that has placed the country at the forefront of global markets. Over the past two decades, India has consistently delivered impressive returns, outpacing many of the worldā€™s largest economies, including the United States. As we delve into the reasons behind this extraordinary growth, it becomes clear that India's success is not just about numbers on a chart but a deeper, more profound shift in its economic structure, fueled by innovation, infrastructure, and a new generation of business leaders.

A Snapshot of India's Economic Performance

To truly appreciate India's economic ascent, one needs to look at the performance of its stock market over the last 10 to 20 years. In terms of dollar returns, India has outperformed almost every other major market. Over a 20-year period, India stands as the best-performing market globally, with a 13.1% return, compared to Americaā€™s 10%. Although the last decade saw the United States and Taiwan (driven largely by TSMC) edge out India, the latter still holds an impressive third place, ahead of economic powerhouses like Japan.

This consistent outperformance is not coincidental. It is closely tied to Indiaā€™s status as the worldā€™s largest free-market democracy, where both political and economic power are vigorously contested. This contestability ensures that innovation and efficiency are rewarded, leading to the creation of a dynamic and resilient economy.

The Engine of Indian Growth: Consistent Compounders

A key factor in Indiaā€™s success has been the emergence of a large number of ā€œconsistent compoundersā€ā€”companies that have managed to grow their revenues and maintain a healthy return on equity over long periods. In a study of large emerging markets, India produced 162 such companies over the last 20 years, more than any other country, including China, whose economy is four times larger.

What sets India apart is not just the number of these companies but their exceptional performance. While Chinaā€™s compounders have delivered a 10% return over 20 years, their Indian counterparts have achieved a staggering 26%. These companies, which include giants like Suzuki and Honda, are the backbone of modern Indiaā€™s economic success.

The Rise of the Challenger Class

Perhaps the most exciting development in recent years has been the rise of what can be termed as the ā€œChallenger Class.ā€ Until a decade ago, India had about 600 companies that could be compared to global giants like Suzuki or Honda in terms of growth and profitability. Today, that number has exploded to 6,000.

These challenger companies, which have been growing their profits at a rate of 15-16% annually over the last decade, are now driving Indiaā€™s economic engine. Even more impressive is their recent performance, with profits compounding at 24-25% over the last three to four years. This rapid growth is not limited to large, established companies but is increasingly driven by smaller, more nimble enterprises that are seizing new opportunities in the market.

The Drivers of Indiaā€™s Economic Transformation

Several key factors have contributed to the rise of these challenger companies and the broader economic success of India:

1. Digital Infrastructure:

India has made significant strides in building a robust digital infrastructure. Today, 55% of the countryā€™s GDP flows through mobile commerce, thanks to the widespread adoption of the Unified Payment Interface (UPI). This system allows for seamless, cashless transactions, even in the smallest of businesses, dramatically reducing working capital cycles and enabling businesses to operate more efficiently.

2. Small Business Lending:

The growth of digital payments has also revolutionized small business lending in India. Banks and non-bank lenders now offer cash flow financing based on real-time data from digital transactions, reducing the cost of working capital from 20% to 10% in just four years. This has been a game-changer for small businesses, allowing them to scale rapidly.

3. Affordable Mobile Data:

India boasts the lowest mobile data costs in the worldā€”150th of what it costs in the United States. This has democratized access to information and technology, empowering small businesses to reach new markets and customers through digital platforms.

4. Tax Reforms:

In 2017, India introduced a unified national tax system, replacing the patchwork of state-level taxes that had previously hindered business operations. This reform has provided businesses with a national platform to grow, further accelerating economic expansion.

The Emergence of a New Elite

Indiaā€™s economic transformation has also given rise to a new class of eliteā€”one that is distinct from the traditional power structures of the past. This new elite is characterized by diversity, education, and a focus on technology and innovation.

Womenā€™s Economic Empowerment:

One of the most striking changes has been the economic empowerment of women. Today, women in urban and metropolitan areas have more bank accounts and more money in those accounts than men. Women are also increasingly taking on leadership roles in both white-collar jobs and manufacturing, driven by Indiaā€™s shift towards a service-oriented economy where education and skills matter more than physical strength.

Local Graduates Leading the Way:

A decade ago, Indiaā€™s boardrooms were dominated by graduates of elite institutions like IITs, IIMs, and foreign universities. Today, the majority of board directors come from local universities. This shift reflects the changing dynamics of Indiaā€™s economy, where practical skills and entrepreneurial spirit are becoming more valuable than elite credentials.

South India: The Economic Engine

South India, encompassing states like Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana, is emerging as the economic powerhouse of the country. With a quarter of the population, this region accounts for half of Indiaā€™s GDP and 60% of its growth. The regionā€™s combination of high education levels, good law and order, and developed infrastructure has made it a magnet for investment, particularly in technology and manufacturing.

The China Plus One Opportunity

Indiaā€™s economic rise is also being fueled by geopolitical shifts, particularly the increasing tension between China and the United States. As global companies look to diversify their supply chains away from China, India has emerged as a natural alternative. This is particularly evident in sectors like electronics manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and medical devices, where India is rapidly expanding its capabilities to meet global demand.

The Future of Indiaā€™s Economic Story

Indiaā€™s economic transformation over the past two decades is a testament to the power of innovation, infrastructure, and the emergence of a new elite that is driving growth across the country. As India continues to build on these foundations, it is poised to play an even more significant role in the global economy, offering new opportunities for investors and businesses alike. The journey is far from over, and as India navigates the challenges and opportunities ahead, its story will continue to be one of resilience, innovation, and growth.

Can't get enough of this conversation? Us neither! Check out the full episode below to satisfy your craving for more insights and ideas. šŸ˜ƒ 

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