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Ahoy, Olio aficionados! 🎩

Greetings on this Wednesday hill climb as we embark on the 55th edition of Weekly Olio - your passport to giggles, wisdom, and a pinch of enigma with our tantalizing thought piece (yes, the infamous Publisher's Parmesan). 🧀

In today's serving of Publisher's Parmesan, we dissect the fractured world of Globalization and ponder what's next in this ever-evolving landscape.

Fascinating stuff, isn't it? 👏

Will come to that, but let’s first start with the curation.

This edition of Weekly Olio is brought to you by Incogni.

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The Quote󠀢 💭

The Tweet 🐦

Calendly has quietly grown into a $100M ARR juggernaut. This thread is the story of Tope Awotona, the founder of Calendly. He was born in Nigeria and moved to the US when he was 12 years old. Calendly was born out of his frustrations around scheduling meetings via email as a sales rep. This thread has a bunch of strategies he adopted that made Calendly into a $3B behemoth.

The Infographic 💹

Another interesting chart from our friends at the Visual Capitalist. With multiple geopolitical problems plaguing the world and a general economic slowdown, growth is hard to come by. China, which used to dominate such charts till only a few years ago, is nowhere to be seen. All eyes are on India - it is the largest country expected to grow at 6%+ over the next one year.

The Short Read 📝

Charlie Munger - by Anand Sridharan

Anand Sridharan is a public markets investor at Nalanda Capital. Nalanda Capital invests in listed Indian equities with a focus on durable businesses with long-term moats available at bargain prices. It is only natural that they imbibe the philosophies of investing greats Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett.

This short article by Anand, published in his newsletter - Buggy Humans in a Messy World, is an ode to the great man who passed away last week. Anand highlights three attributes that defined Charlie - rationality, bluntness and judgement. Known for his blunt assessments of companies, theories and people, Charlie saw the world the way it was. As Warren Buffett has said, Charlie was the best 30-second mind in the world. He will be missed.

The Long Read 📜

Wedge is the Founder’s Edge - by Zee Prime Capital

This great piece by the Zee Prime Capital team emphasises the need for startups to find a small niche or wedge within a small market instead of claiming a 1% share within a massive market. Several examples from the crypto space are used to illustrate their point. For instance, Uniswap focused on permissionless liquidity bootstrapping for a long-tail of tokens, while Blur identified distinctions between NFT collectors and traders.

The article stresses the idea that successful businesses often begin with a narrow focus, serving a small target market exceptionally well, before expanding into adjacent areas. Going beyond crypto, it also draws parallels to successful companies like Facebook, LinkedIn, and Amazon, which started with specific niches before growing into larger markets. Having a wedge is critical to finding new users for a new product before expanding into adjacent businesses.

This edition of Publisher’s Parmesan is brought to you by Flippa.

Publisher’s Parmesan 🧀

Globalization Is Fracturing. So What Comes Next?

After the Cold War ended, globalization took hold as the world became a network of interconnected economies. But events of recent years have caused fractures along geopolitical lines, prompting both leaders and companies to reevaluate who they do business with, and how. Amid the turmoil, a group of countries are capitalizing on this new reality, and thriving.

In the last four decades, globalization has been the powerhouse behind the world economy, driving nations to integrate economically on an unprecedented scale. However, as we find ourselves at an inflexion point, it's clear that the dynamics are shifting, and the global economic landscape is undergoing a profound transformation.

The Rise and (Maybe) Fall of Globalization

Picture this: the end of the Cold War marked the beginning of a rapid acceleration in the economic integration of major nations. The signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was a bold move, and as it came into law, the world was ready to compete. Businesses were quick to jump on the globalization bandwagon, creating intricate supply chains that spanned the globe.

Why? Well, what made sense for businesses in terms of profit, cost, and efficiency also made sense for governments. The idea was simple – the more countries worked together and linked their economies, the more likely they were to be at peace. Harmony, right?

Trouble in Paradise: The Changing Tide

Fast forward to today, and we find ourselves at an unexpected crossroads. Uncertainty looms large, and the world economy is said to be at an inflexion point. The aftermath of the financial crisis in the years following the 2008 recession brought the conventional Western economic capitalist-led model under intense scrutiny.

Brexit happened. Donald Trump got elected. A trade war erupted between China and the U.S. Then, enter the global pandemic, testing the resilience of global supply chains and prompting countries to rethink offshoring production. Add in wars, coups, and the ever-charming Vladimir Putin stirring things up in Ukraine, and you've got a recipe for questioning the benefits of globalization.

Geopolitics Takes the Wheel

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 became a defining moment, crystallizing the divide in the global economy. At the United Nations, a vote over condemning Russia saw roughly two-thirds of the global economy, led by the United States, standing united against Russia's actions. The remaining third, not so much.

Geopolitics is now guiding billions of dollars in investments in new factories. The International Monetary Fund warned that a full fracturing of the global economy could eliminate 7% of global GDP – no small feat, equivalent to wiping out the French and German economies combined.

China: The Elephant in the Room

China, the world's factory floor, remains a key player. Despite negative sentiment towards investing there, the global trade network has relied heavily on the intricate relationship between the U.S. and China over the past few decades. It's like trying to unscramble an omelette – American companies remain heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing.

Connectors: Navigating the Middle Ground

Enter the connector economies, a group of nations navigating the middle ground in this geopolitical divide. These countries, like Vietnam, Poland, Indonesia, Morocco, and Mexico, are neither choosing sides nor sitting on the sidelines. They attract factories from both the U.S. and China, creating a delicate balance and reaping benefits from both sides of the emerging rivalry.

In Vietnam, once serene rice fields are now bustling with big factories. Exports to the U.S. and imports from China have doubled, showcasing their ability to play both sides. Poland, sitting at the heart of Europe, is raking in investments from China, South Korea, and even U.S. chip makers. Indonesia is leveraging its natural resources, bringing together players from the U.S. and China to exploit nickel mines.

Mexico, a prime example of nearshoring, sits on the U.S. border, attracting both American and Chinese investments. The potential to become the future "Made in Mexico" is on the horizon.

The Road Ahead

While these connector economies are positioning themselves strategically, they still have a long way to go in terms of infrastructure. Motorways, ports, and electricity networks need development, and they are playing catch-up to China, which has excelled in these areas for decades.

We're witnessing the beginning of a new chapter in the story of globalization. It's not the end, but a reshaping of the global economy. While tensions may exist at the government level, businesses are likely to find ways around political divides, ensuring that the world remains an incredibly interconnected place.

In the grand scheme of things, globalization is far from over. The direction we take in the years to come will shape our lives, and as we navigate this uncharted territory, one thing remains certain – change is inevitable, but the world keeps on spinning. 

Oilo Jobs 💼

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• IDEXX | Auckland - Product Manager

• Glovo | Barcelona - Senior Product Manager

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Peeyush and Mohit

Disclaimer: The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not necessarily to the author's employer, organization, committee or other group or individual.